Presentation at the ECPR general conference: Bastián González-Bustamante explores the effect of ministerial dismissals on approval

Our research associate, Bastián González-Bustamante, had the honour of presenting his research at the general conference of the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) in Prague, Czech Republic. This important annual meeting brought together experts and practitioners in political science and related disciplines to discuss the latest advances and findings in the field.

The ECPR conference is a leading event in the international scientific community, providing an ideal platform for sharing innovative research and receiving valuable feedback. Bastian’s presentation was part of this annual meeting, which was held at Charles University from 4-8 September.

In his presentation, Bastián explored how ministerial dismissals affect presidential approval. According to our researcher, presidents face unexpected challenges related to stochastic events such as scandals, policy failures, or economic crises. He argues that the dismissal of ministers who have been publicly questioned presents an opportunity for the president to send signals to the electorate in the expectation of a corrective effect on popularity through a blame dynamic.

The central argument is that this dynamic tends to occur in coalition governments, where political responsibility can be more easily attributed to different parts and factions of government, weakening the personalisation centred on the president and facilitating blame-shifting and corrective effect. To test this expectation, Bastián used instrumental variables (IV) regressions applied to unpublished data on ministerial dismissals and calls for resignations in 124 governments in 12 presidential democracies. The data were collected using data mining, machine learning techniques, and time series for approval.

In sum, Bastián González-Bustamante’s presentation at the ECPR conference demonstrated his ability to analyse complex policy and methodological problems and present relevant findings to a specialised audience. These efforts contribute to the work of our research group, the Training Data Lab, which focuses on the application of innovative methodologies in the field of social sciences.

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