Research presentation at the World Congress of Political Science in Buenos Aires

Last July 15-19, our research associate Bastián González-Bustamante had the honour of presenting his research entitled “The Impact of Ministers’ Profiles on Cabinet Turnover during Presidential Crises” at the World Congress of Political Science, which took place in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This important conference brought together more than 2,995 participants from 98 countries to discuss the most relevant issues in political science.

The research presented by Bastián González-Bustamante was published in the prestigious British Journal of Politics and International Relations under the title “Ministerial stability during presidential approval crises: The moderating effect of ministers’ attributes on dismissals in Brazil and Chile”. In it, the researcher analyses the effect of ministers’ profiles on the fate of cabinets during periods of low presidential approval in Brazil and Chile between 1990 and 2014.

The conference focused on “Politics in the Age of Transnational Crises: Vulnerability and Resilience”, allowing participants to discuss the consequences of global crises in the political sphere. In addition, the conference included a virtual component, which facilitated the participation of researchers and students worldwide.

The research presented by Bastián González-Bustamante uses an innovative approach to analysing ministerial stability during periods of low presidential approval. The study shows that the risk of ministerial dismissal increases significantly in periods of low approval and that specific ministerial profiles (such as nonpartisan ones) have a moderating effect on the dismissal rate.

The presentation was well received by the academic community and was an important milestone for the Training Data Lab team. This research is yet another example of how our group is committed to high-quality knowledge production and international collaboration in political science.

Summary of the research

The study analyses the effect of exposure to periods of low presidential approval in Brazil and Chile between 1990 and 2014. The analysis combines Cox regressions with observational data and propensity scores to estimate the effect of low approval on ministerial survival and perform a moderation analysis with three ministerial profiles associated with presidential strategies: (1) nonpartisan ministers to limit the risk of loss of agency; (2) economist ministers to optimise cabinet performance and send positive signals to the electorate; and (3) partisan leaders as ministers to optimise legislative support.

The main findings show that the risk increases by 135.1% in periods of low approval. Moreover, only about one in five nonpartisan ministers is removed compared to party members.

Our commitment to research and international collaboration

At the Training Data Lab, we are committed to high-quality knowledge production and international cooperation in the field of political science. Our researchers are working hard to generate innovative and relevant results that contribute to understanding current policy challenges.

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